No retreat on net zero the Climate Change Committee are calling for in its statutory report providing a comprehensive overview of the UK Government’s progress to date in reducing emissions. As temperatures reach record breaking levels this week, the Committee reports yesterday (24th June) that the UK Government is not moving fast enough to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to protect households and businesses from volatile fossil fuel prices. It goes on to make the following points:
- The war in Iran has led to the second global fossil fuel price shock in just four years. In this uncertain geopolitical context, many countries are responding with plans to provide secure, home-grown energy by rapidly reducing dependency on fossil fuels.
- To ensure no retreat on net zero the UK Government needs a more ambitious plan to electrify the UK. This requires continued progress towards low-carbon electricity and an accelerated roll-out of electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, and industrial electrification.
- The UK remains among a leading group of countries demonstrating sustained emissions reduction. The Government has set out its proposed level for the Seventh Carbon Budget, in line with the Committee’s advice – a feasible, ambitious level. There has been positive action on low-carbon electricity over the past year, with record amounts of renewable capacity procured in the latest Contracts for Difference allocation round. However, while there have been some steps taken to reduce the costs of electricity, the Government’s plan for electrification lacks ambition. Indicators for some electric technologies are showing worrying signs: while electric car sales are keeping pace with government plans, electric van sales remain off track and the growth in heat pump installations in existing homes slowed significantly last year.
- There is now a significant gap between the plan’s projected emissions reductions and the UK’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, a commitment to reduce emissions by at least 68% compared to 1990 levels. Increasing ambition and achieving the 2030 NDC would put the UK on track to achieve its future carbon budgets and Net Zero by 2050, and send a strong international signal of commitment to delivery.
- The slow pace of electrification is putting the UK’s climate targets at risk and is a missed opportunity to enhance UK energy security in the face of rising threats, leaving the UK exposed to geopolitical shocks. 93% of the UK’s emissions are now outside the electricity supply sector and around three-quarters of a typical household’s driving and home energy bills are from the direct use of fossil fuels in cars and gas boilers. Following the recent increase in fossil fuel prices, bills have increased almost four times more for a typical household with a gas boiler and a petrol car, compared to a household with a heat pump and an EV. For a rural household with an oil boiler and a diesel car, the increase is 10 times more.
- Accelerating EV sales and heat pump installations beyond government plans would help address these challenges. It would keep the 2030 NDC in reach, improve the UK’s air quality, ease inflationary pressures from fossil fuel shocks, and reduce costs for consumers, giving them more spending power elsewhere in the economy. The UK could save up to 80 million barrels of oil and 1.5 billion therms of gas in 2030, which would cost almost £8 billion at current oil and gas prices.
- Electrification is the most effective form of energy efficiency: by 2050, the efficiency of a more electrified energy system would reduce wasted energy by around half compared to today.
- Progress in other sectors, including agriculture, land use, and aviation, has also been too slow. In addition, the Government’s plan to achieve the Sixth Carbon Budget relies on a rapid ramp-up in engineered removals after 2030 but lacks detail on how this will be achieve.
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